Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 2.209799 2.980076 4.054057 5.708586 8.283945e+00 1.230629e+01 1.943161e+01
2025-02-09 1.616765 2.524212 4.062243 7.063801 1.334947e+01 2.757711e+01 6.911279e+01
2025-02-16 1.164411 2.035896 3.764549 7.912570 1.948779e+01 5.902773e+01 2.879361e+02
2025-02-23 0.816454 1.554754 3.210516 7.933174 2.509726e+01 1.160191e+02 1.510311e+03
2025-03-02 0.577203 1.174018 2.649481 7.515893 3.005547e+01 2.212384e+02 1.462926e+04
2025-03-09 0.458822 1.002168 2.499078 8.355957 4.548172e+01 7.108212e+02 3.083994e+08
2025-03-16 0.368371 0.855114 2.329859 9.095060 6.851537e+01 3.083394e+03 NaN
2025-03-23 0.306773 0.754817 2.245106 10.311188 1.141602e+02 3.526391e+04 NaN
2025-03-30 0.257313 0.665989 2.143210 11.488157 1.931435e+02 8.137981e+06 NaN
2025-04-06 0.207018 0.552780 1.869595 11.099019 2.544471e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.166410 0.454414 1.593767 10.218625 3.023804e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.143741 0.406317 1.508755 10.963668 5.152302e+02 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.127937 0.377742 1.509912 13.005242 1.293634e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.116053 0.358380 1.548889 16.155763 4.797706e+03 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.102059 0.325116 1.485242 17.885073 1.606641e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.087146 0.282381 1.330483 17.408564 3.574142e+04 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.073815 0.241529 1.158495 15.919531 5.871702e+04 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.066559 0.223504 1.124699 17.700164 6.538190e+05 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 0.059990 0.205984 1.080911 19.247948 8.714335e+07 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 0.055046 0.193822 1.067217 22.034638 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-22 0.050489 0.181751 1.044693 24.765728 NaN NaN NaN
2025-06-29 0.044762 0.162309 0.946328 23.516906 NaN NaN NaN
2025-07-06 0.039422 0.143248 0.838664 21.131849 NaN NaN NaN